USDA Numbers Not Reported
There are a set of numbers in Friday's USDA report that almost all analysists are ignoring. For the first time the USDA gave us two sets of numbers for world carryover. One including the estimated corn stocks in China and the other without. The point being the actual number in China is a "State Secret" so the USDA just uses it's best guess. Plus, no matter what the number is, China corn stocks it is not available to the world market. China does not export corn onto the world market.
On Friday the USDA projected world corn carryover at 325 million metric ton. However, the world carryover without the estimated corn stocks in China is a 'tight" 116 million metric ton. For new crop corn the estimated world carryover is 315 million metric ton including China. The world carryover without China it is 123 million metric ton. It is going to be interesting to see if the "corn market" pays any attention to the "tight" world corn carryover when you subtract the estimated China stocks?