This morning at 11:00 the USDA released the November Supply Demand Report and it was not a shocker. But the market response was! Looking at the average trade guess going into the report, there was very little change for the October report. Typically the USDA does not make big changes from the October to November report. That was the case again this year. The changes were so close you could not even call it a rounding error.

So, why did beans rally 55 cents a bushel and corn almost 15 cents? Listening and reading many "experts" they were expecting the USDA to raise corn and soybean yields and total production dramatically. That was the narrative about how bearish the report would be. Maybe I can getting cynical, but could it be that all that bearish talk was to try and get farmers to sell more corn and beans before the rally higher? There is no way to prove that theory, but it makes you wonder how the "experts" could be so bearish when the average trade guess was about unchanged from October?

Click on the link and listen to Gordy Kralovetz with Chiodo Commodities talk about the November Supply Demand Report just a few minutes after the release at 11:00. Then again both corn and beans closed well of their highs today, so maybe the "experts" are right that it was bearish?

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