Traders Ignore April USDA Report? Gordy [Listen]
Going into the April USDA Supply Demand report corn was trading around 10 cents higher and beans were up about 28 cents. When the numbers came out both corn and beans sold off but then rallied right back. It was almost as though traders or the market just ignored the kind of bearish USDA report. It was a bit bearish because the USDA left U.S. corn ending stocks unchanged from the March Report at 1.44 billion bushel and only dropped the soybean carryover to 25 million bushel to 285 million.
Traders expected the USDA to cut the U.S. corn and bean carryover or ending stocks by a little more than they did. Plus, traders expected the USDA to cut the South American soybean crop by more and the USDA even raised the South American corn crop. For the world numbers the USDA raised the corn carryover by 5 million metric ton and cut the bean carryover slightly.
So, the "knee jerk" reaction was lower but then the corn and soybean markets came right back. Apparently there were buyers under the market that wanted to buy a break. Maybe you could also say the "market" discounted the USDA estimates assuming that the projected U.S. and world carryovers are much tighter? Click on the link and listen to Gordy Kralovetz with Chiodo Commodities talk about the April USDA Supply Demand Report that was released this morning at 11:00.