Did the Grain Bulls Have Christmas?
There is an old saying in the grain markets that if the bears have Thanksgiving the bulls will have Christmas or vis-versa. There is no debating that the bears had Thanksgiving when both corn and beans were at the lower end of the trading ranges or close to contract lows. So, did the saying hold true that the bears had Thanksgiving so the bulls had Christmas?
I guess depending on your definition you could say the bulls had Christmas. When the grain markets closed early on Christmas Eve Day beans had rallied about 60 cents a bushel off the lows and corn around 20 cents a bushel. Given how low prices were it still seems hard to say the bulls had Christmas?
The real story since fall is the cash basis. According to Commodity View the national corn basis for corn is about 25 cents tighter than a year ago and the national bean basis is over 30 cents tighter. In our area we have the tightest basis I can remember at this time of the year. Does that mean we will see higher prices, or will we reach a point where farmers begin to sell and prices crash?