USDA Report This Morning At 11:00

Corn started the week lower on Monday with losses of around 5 cents. The funds appear to be comfortable going into the big USDA report this morning record short. A survey of analysts shows world ending stocks are expected to be at 212.51 MMT. The USDA December estimate was at 211.85 MMT. Traders anticipate record large stocks of around 11.2 billion bushels, carryover about unchanged at 1.785 billion bushels and the 2015-16 crop down 8 million bushels at 13.646 billion bushels.

Beans were under pressure Monday, too, closing down around 4 cents a bushel, except the January contract, which was up a penny and a half. I find it interesting that the January contract was higher. The expiring contract goes off the board later this week. The average trade guesses for the report this morning, Brazil production 99.3 MMT compared about 100 MMT in December. Traders expect the crop size to be unchanged at 3.981 billion bushels and December stocks at 2.720 billion bushels. This is one of the biggest reports of the year and has a history of causing big moves in the markets, both higher and lower. What is the old saying "hope for the best, plan for the worst and expect some surprises!"