USDA Report Grains Higher

The January USDA report today lived up to its reputation of moving the markets. Corn was lower going into the report and as soon as the numbers were released, corn moved higher. The national average yield was cut .9 bushel an acre to 168.4 so that brought total production to 13.601 billion bushels. The trade expected total production of 13.646 billion bushels. The quarterly grains stocks came in at 11.212 billion bushels and the trade expected 11.237 billion bushels. These numbers were not really bullish but we moved higher right out of the report.

The bean numbers were pretty close to the trade guess, too. The USDA cut the yield .3 bushel an acre to a national average yield of 48 bushels an acre. Total production was 3.930 billion bushels while the trade expected 3.981 billion bushels. In the quarterly grain stocks, beans were at 2.715 billion bushels compared to the trade guess of 2.720 billion bushels.

It was the global carryover numbers that were friendly. The USDA projected world carryover in corn at 208.94 MMT, down from 211.85 MMT. Bean carryover dropped, too, from 82.58 MMT to 79.28 MMT. The USDA did not change the bean estimates in Brazil or Argentina and they left the corn numbers unchanged, too. While there was a bullish move, both corn and beans closed off the highs, which was rather disappointing. Corn was up only 3-4 cents and beans up 10-13 cents. Maybe tonight in the overnight session and Wednesday we can get some follow through?