Market Report: Dead Cat Bounce

Corn saw a dead cat bounce today closing about a penny higher. This was not much of a dead cat bounce given that March corn saw a new life of contract low Monday. A dead cat bounce means a slightly higher close in a very bearish market. Both corn and beans defied the odds this fall. There is about a 76 percent chance that corn and beans will see a post-harvest rally. Well, we have not seen one this fall. I keep reading that farmers have very little of the 2015 crop sold. In fact, much less than they normally do. There is another old phrase in the grain trade that says markets cannot see a rally when farmers own the majority of the crop. So far it looks like that phrase is holding true this year!

Beans saw a weak dead cat bounce today, too, closing only 1-2 cents higher. Beans were up about 6-7 cents at one time today. The weather forecast is calling for more rain in northern Brazil and the Dollar Index was also higher. That seemed to give the bears all the power they needed to take beans well off the highs of the day. The CFTC report showed the funds were net short 63,515 contracts as of last Tuesday. That is twice as short as they were the previous week. In addition they surely added more shorts last Wednesday, Thursday and Monday of this week. When will they cover those shorts? I wish I knew!