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Grains Waiting for the USDA Numbers Monday Morning

Monday morning at 11:00 AM the USDA will be releasing the Stocks Now Positions and the Planting Intentions Report. On the projected plantings traders expect that Farmers will plant around 92.748 million acres of corn this year. That would be the lowest number in three years. That is because corn prices dropped from over $7 a bushel last year to just over $4 a bushel this year. Traders expect that Farmers will plant 81.075 million acres of soybeans. That would be a record number of soybean acres. You always have the take the USDA numbers with a “grain of salt” because their survey is done early in March. In the last month December corn has seen a nice rally compared to November beans and that might entice Farmers to plant more corn. On top of that spring planting weather will have the largest impact on acres planted. The other unknown in Monday’s report is the stocks report that shows the number of bushels of corn and beans in storage. This is the big “wild card” on Monday. In the last couple years we have had “jaw dropping” numbers from the USDA both bullish and bearish. In fact, four of the last seven years we have seen a limit move in corn from this report. The USDA used to release the report at 7:30 AM when the COBT was closed between the overnight and day session. That gave traders a couple of hours to analyze and think about the numbers. Now the report is released at 11:00 am when the market is open. That can cause huge swings in the market as traders react to the report. Should be an INTERESTING day!

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