A White Christmas in Minnesota is Not Guaranteed, Here Are the Odds

Whether you're a fan of snow & winter or not, most of us agree that a little of the white stuff is nice around the holidays. Here's what the chances are of having a White Christmas this year in Minnesota.

Despite the fairly warm and dry fall we've had this season, this year's forecast calls for near normal snowfall for the winter of 2024-2025.

Statistically, most of Minnesota has at least a 61% average chance of average of having a White Christmas. The northern third of the state has much better odds than that, but it does seem to be changing over the past few years.

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Minnesota. Maine. Upstate New York. The Allegheny Mountains of Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Practically anywhere in Idaho. And of course, the Rockies or the Sierra Nevada Mountains. These are the parts of the Lower 48 where weather history suggests you want to be if you're looking for the best chance of a white Christmas.

The average snow fall for southern Minnesota in December is around 12 inches, making it on average our snowiest month of the year. We typically get about 7 more inches in January.

With all the rain we have had lately, if had been in the 20s instead of the 40s, we would already have picked up an impressive amount of snow. That trend looks as though it could continue through November, bringing us more liquid precipitation than snow.

Ho, ho ho -- let's all think snow!