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USDA Outlook Forum Numbers

This morning the USDA released the numbers form their annual Outlook Forum. It seems this report is very “bearish” every year with some of the assumptions that the USDA comes up with in terms of production, demand and carryover. I can remember at this time some years the USDA was projecting bean carryovers of more than 600 million bushels. This year the numbers are not as scary. With the 2014-15 crop the USDA projects a bean carryover of 285 million bushel with a yield of 45.2 bushel an acre and total production of 3.55 billion bushel. For corn the USDA sees production this year of 13.985 billion bushel with an average yield of 165.3. The corn carryover is projected at 2.11 billion bushel. The reason the numbers are not really bearish is the USDA is using close to a record yield for corn and soybeans! With the extreme weather we have seen the last couple years you have to wonder about record yields? Take the yields down just a little and carryovers would again be very tight. Maybe the market  is thinking about that because beans are 5 or six cents higher and corn is only 2 or 3 cents lower today.

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